The value added of machine learning to causal inference: evidence from revisited studies

Abstract

Summary A new and rapidly growing econometric literature is making advances in the problem of using machine learning methods for causal inference questions. Yet, the empirical economics literature has not started to fully exploit the strengths of these modern methods. We revisit influential empirical studies with causal machine learning methods aiming to connect the econometric theory on these methods with empirical economics. We focus on the double machine learning, causal forest, and generic machine learning methods, in the context of both average and heterogeneous treatment effects. We illustrate the implementation of these methods in a variety of settings and highlight the relevance and value added relative to traditional methods used in the original studies.