Research on the navigational risk of liquefied natural gas carriers in an inland river based on entropy: a cloud evaluation model

Abstract

Abstract Due to the flammability and explosive nature of liquefied natural gas (LNG), an extremely strict process is followed for the transportation of LNG carriers in China. Particularly, no LNG carriers are operating in inland rivers within the country. Therefore, to ensure the future navigation safety of LNG carriers entering the Yangtze River, the risk sources of LNG carriers' navigation safety must be identified and evaluated. Based on the Delphi and expert experience method, this paper analyzes and discusses the navigation risk factors of LNG carriers in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River from four aspects (human, ship, environment, and management), and identifies 12 risk indicators affecting the navigation of LNG carriers, and establishes a risk evaluation index system. Further, an entropy weight fuzzy model is utilized to reduce the influence of subjective judgment on the index weight as well as to conduct a segmented and overall evaluation of LNG navigation risks in the Baimaosha Channel. Finally, the cloud model is applied to validate the consistent feasibility of the entropy weight fuzzy model. The research results indicate that the method provides effective technical support for further study on the navigation security of LNG carriers in inland rivers.