COVID-19: On the Disparity in Outcomes Between Military and Civilian Populations

Author:

Riley Pete1,Ben-Nun Michal1,Turtle James1,Bacon David2,Owens Akeisha N3,Riley Steven4

Affiliation:

1. Predictive Science Inc., San Diego, CA 92121, USA

2. Leidos Inc., Tysons, VA 22182, USA

3. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) Reachback, Fort Belvoir, VA 22060-6201, USA

4. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, SW7 2BX, UK

Abstract

ABSTRACT Introduction The CoronaVirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic remains a formidable threat to populations around the world. The U.S. Military, in particular, represents a unique and distinguishable subset of the population, primarily due to the age and gender of active duty personnel. Current investigations have focused on health outcome forecasts for civilian populations, making them of limited value for military planning. Materials and Methods We have developed and applied an age-structured susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, or dead compartmental model for both civilian and military populations, driven by estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number, R(t), which can be both fit to available data and also forecast future cases, intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and deaths. Results We show that the expected health outcomes for active duty military populations are substantially different than for civilian populations of the same size. Specifically, while the number of cases is not expected to differ dramatically, severity, both in terms of ICU burdens and deaths, is substantially lower. Conclusions Our results confirm that the burden placed on military health centers will be substantially lower than that for equivalent-sized civilian populations. More practically, the tool we have developed to investigate this (https://q.predsci.com/covid19/) can be used by military health planners to estimate the resources needed in particular locations based on current estimates of the transmission profiles of COVID-19 within the surrounding civilian population in which the military installation is embedded. As this tool continues to be developed, it can be used to assess the likely impact of different intervention strategies, as well as vaccine policies; both for the current pandemic as well as future ones.

Funder

National Science Foundation’s Rapid Response Research program

Department of Defense’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) Reachback

Leidos

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Medicine

Reference13 articles.

1. How to partner with the military in responding to pandemics-A blueprint for success;Knudson;JAMA Surg,2020

2. How the pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond;Scudellari;Nature,2020

3. Long-term effects of COVID-19 [Internet];CDC,2020

4. Multiple estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 influenza pandemic based on influenza-like-illness data from small US military populations;Riley;PLoS Comput Biol,2013

5. Predictive Science Inc.: psiCOVID19 [Internet],2021

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