Observed Warming Trends at U.S. Army Basic Combat Training Installations and Implications for Future Recruit Training

Abstract

ABSTRACT Introduction Army recruits conducting BCT are among the most susceptible population of military personnel to experience exertional heat illness, a concern expected to become increasingly urgent due to steadily rising temperatures. In this study, we provide an empirical analysis of wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index trends at U.S. Army BCT installations and quantify the magnitude of these trends. Assuming these warming trends continue, the anticipated effects of increasing temperature trends are discussed in relation to potential impacts on recruit heat illness incidence and training disruption. Materials and Methods We obtained weather data beginning in the early 1960s, including WBGT index measurements derived by the U.S. Air Force 14th Weather Squadron. We apply these datasets to two classifications for high WBGT index days, including one classification accounting for heat illness susceptibility based on prior day heat exposure, to determine when recruits are most at risk of heat illness. The daily likelihood of extreme WBGT index values is described at each installation using a 30-year climatological average. Trends in the WBGT index are evaluated quantitatively during the warm season (May 1–September 30) and full year and compared between decades and by individual BCT classes. Results Trends in the WBGT index have increased at all four BCT installations. Between January 1960 and October 2022, the mean WBGT index value increased most quickly at Ft Jackson, SC (0.272°C decade−1, CI: 0.255–0.289) and least at Ft Moore, GA (0.190°C decade−1, CI: 0.170–0.210). Ft Moore experiences the greatest heat burden, with the daily likelihood of experiencing a “black flag” event (≥90°F WBGT index) peaking at nearly 50% in late July, while Ft Leonard Wood, MO, experiences the least heat burden. This heat burden is spread unevenly across installations and dependent on BCT class start date. Recruits beginning in mid-June will experience approximately 200 hours of hazardous heat during BCT at Ft Moore, GA; 100 hours at Ft Jackson, SC; 80 hours at Ft Sill, OK; and 61 hours at Ft Leonard Wood, MO. Conclusions Temperatures measured on the WBGT index have steadily increased at US Army basic training installations since at least 1960. In the future, adaptation to the BCT program will be required to maintain rigorous standards without incurring unacceptable risk of recruit heat illness. The analysis provided by this study can help inform medical, training, and policy implementations needed to ensure continued BCT in a warming world.