The maximum likelihood ensemble smoother for the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equation

Abstract

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) aims to combine observations/data with a model to maximize the utility of information for obtaining the optimal estimate. The maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF) is a sequential DA method or a filter-type method. Weaknesses of the filter method are assimilating time-integrated observations and estimating empirical parameter estimation. The reason is that the forward model is employed outside of the analysis procedure in this type of DA method. To overcome these weaknesses, the MLEF is now extended as a smoother and the novel maximum likelihood ensemble smoother (MLES) is proposed. The MLES is a smoothing method with variational-like qualities, specifically in the cost function. Rather than using the error information from a single temporal location to solve for the optimal analysis update as done by the MLEF, the MLES can include observations and the forward model within a chosen time window. The newly proposed DA method is first validated by a series of rigorous and thorough performance tests using the Lorenz 96 model. Then, as DA is known to be used extensively to increase the predictability of the commonly chaotic dynamical systems seen in meteorological applications, this study demonstrates the MLES with a model chaotic problem governed by the 1D Kuramoto–Sivashinky (KS) equation. Additionally, the MLES is shown to be an effective method in improving the estimate of uncertain empirical model parameters. The MLES and MLEF are then directly compared and it is shown that the performance of the MLES is adequate and that it is a good candidate for increasing the predictability of a chaotic dynamical system. Future work will focus on an extensive application of the MLES to highly turbulent flows.