Data-driven estimates of global nitrous oxide emissions from croplands

Abstract

Abstract Croplands are the single largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N2O) globally, yet their estimates remain difficult to verify when using Tier 1 and 3 methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we re-evaluate global cropland-N2O emissions in 1961–2014, using N-rate-dependent emission factors (EFs) upscaled from 1206 field observations in 180 global distributed sites and high-resolution N inputs disaggregated from sub-national surveys covering 15593 administrative units. Our results confirm IPCC Tier 1 default EFs for upland crops in 1990–2014, but give a ∼15% lower EF in 1961–1989 and a ∼67% larger EF for paddy rice over the full period. Associated emissions (0.82 ± 0.34 Tg N yr–1) are probably one-quarter lower than IPCC Tier 1 global inventories but close to Tier 3 estimates. The use of survey-based gridded N-input data contributes 58% of this emission reduction, the rest being explained by the use of observation-based non-linear EFs. We conclude that upscaling N2O emissions from site-level observations to global croplands provides a new benchmark for constraining IPCC Tier 1 and 3 methods. The detailed spatial distribution of emission data is expected to inform advancement towards more realistic and effective mitigation pathways.