Quantitative Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems

Abstract

Abstract Characterizing and predicting the response of terrestrial ecosystems to global change is part of the fundamental challenges of contemporary ecology and ecological conservation. The assessment of climate change impact on forest ecosystems has rarely used a multi-index fusion method for quantitative evaluation. We used forest distribution, net primary productivity, and vegetation coverage to establish an assessment model of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. We analyzed the change characteristics of these indicators in the Heilongjiang Province of China. Our results indicate the following: (1) from 2001 to 2019, the forest area in Heilongjiang Province ranged from 234,000 to 246,000 km2. The forest net primary productivity (NPP) ranged from 4.40 to 5.55 MgC·ha-1·yr-1, and the vegetation coverage ranged from 42.42% to 67.64%. The forest NPP and the vegetation coverage showed a significant upward trend. (2) The values of forest ecological roles were significantly positively correlated with the climatic potential. (3) The contribution rate of climate change to forest ecosystem change was negatively correlated with forest coverage, which varied from 4.79% to 18.07% in different regions (cities) of the province. Study Implications: Assessing the influence of climate on forest ecosystems comprehensively and accurately before the government prepares ecological measures is necessary. However, the responses of vegetation coverage and net primary productivity to climate change may not be consistent, so climate studies that consider forest ecosystem change trends by a single indicator may have confounding results. We established a model for evaluating the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems to solve this problem. This knowledge may provide a reference for the response, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystems to climate change.