A single early introduction governed viral diversity in the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Hungary

Abstract

Abstract Retrospective evaluation of past waves of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic is key for designing optimal interventions against future waves and novel pandemics. Here, we report on analysing genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 from the first two waves of the epidemic in 2020 in Hungary, mirroring a suppression and a mitigation strategy, respectively. Our analysis reveals that the two waves markedly differed in viral diversity and transmission patterns. Specifically, unlike in several European areas or in the USA, we have found no evidence for early introduction and cryptic transmission of the virus in the first wave of the pandemic in Hungary. Despite the introduction of multiple viral lineages, extensive community spread was prevented by a timely national lockdown in March 2020. In sharp contrast, the majority of the cases in the much larger second wave can be linked to a single transmission lineage of the pan-European B.1.160 variant. This lineage was introduced unexpectedly early, followed by a 2-month-long cryptic transmission before a soar of detected cases in September 2020. Epidemic analysis has revealed that the dominance of this lineage in the second wave was not associated with an intrinsic transmission advantage. This finding is further supported by the rapid replacement of B.1.160 by the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) that launched the third wave of the epidemic in February 2021. Overall, these results illustrate how the founder effect in combination with the cryptic transmission, instead of repeated international introductions or higher transmissibility, can govern viral diversity.