Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa

Author:

Ankel-Peters Jörg1,Bruederle Anna2,Roberts Gareth3

Affiliation:

1. RWI—Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Essen, University of Passau , Germany

2. Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen , St. Gallen, Switzerland

3. School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg , South Africa

Abstract

Abstract South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world. This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at a monthly resolution on the police ward level, we observe a short-term effect of temperatures on violent crime. Furthermore, we find evidence for the medium-term effect of weather on crime via droughts. Yet, effect sizes are subtle in both cases and we also emphasize often neglected but well-documented limitations to the interpretability of weather data and weather-induced mechanisms. Recognizing these limitations, we conclude with a cautious interpretation of our findings to inform police deployment strategies.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Applied Mathematics

Reference74 articles.

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