Understanding the unimodal distributions of cancer occurrence rates: it takes two factors for a cancer to occur

Abstract

Abstract Data from the SEER reports reveal that the occurrence rate of a cancer type generally follows a unimodal distribution over age, peaking at an age that is cancer-type specific and ranges from 30+ through 70+. Previous studies attribute such bell-shaped distributions to the reduced proliferative potential in senior years but fail to explain why some cancers have their occurrence peak at 30+ or 40+. We present a computational model to offer a new explanation to such distributions. The model uses two factors to explain the observed age-dependent cancer occurrence rates: cancer risk of an organ and the availability level of the growth signals in circulation needed by a cancer type, with the former increasing and the latter decreasing with age. Regression analyses were conducted of known occurrence rates against such factors for triple negative breast cancer, testicular cancer and cervical cancer; and all achieved highly tight fitting results, which were also consistent with clinical, gene-expression and cancer-drug data. These reveal a fundamentally important relationship: while cancer is driven by endogenous stressors, it requires sufficient levels of exogenous growth signals to happen, hence suggesting the realistic possibility for treating cancer via cleaning out the growth signals in circulation needed by a cancer.