The association of haemoglobin A1c variability with adverse outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation prescribed anticoagulants

Abstract

Abstract Aims The association of haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) variability with the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) prescribed anticoagulants remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the association of HbA1c variability with the risk of ischaemic stroke (IS)/systemic embolism (SE) and all-cause mortality among patients with non-valvular AF prescribed anticoagulants. Methods and results Patients newly diagnosed with AF from 2013 to 2018 were included. Variability in HbA1c, indexed by the coefficient of variation (CV), was determined for those with at least three HbA1c measurements available from the time of study enrolment to the end of follow-up. To evaluate whether prevalent diabetes would modify the relationship between HbA1c variability and outcomes, participants were divided into diabetes and non-diabetes groups. The study included 8790 patients (mean age 72.7% and 48.5% female). Over a median follow-up of 5.5 years (interquartile range 5.2, 5.8), the incident rate was 3.74 per 100 person-years for IS/SE and 4.89 for all-cause mortality in the diabetes group. The corresponding incident rates in the non-diabetes group were 2.41 and 2.42 per 100 person-years. In the diabetes group, after adjusting for covariates including mean HbA1c, greater HbA1c variability was significantly associated with increased risk of IS/SE [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–2.13) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.05–1.47) compared with the lowest CV tertile. A similar pattern was evident in the non-diabetes group (IS/SE: HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.23–2.02; all-cause mortality: HR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.10–1.64). Conclusion Greater HbA1c variability was independently associated with increased risk of IS/SE and all-cause mortality among patients with AF, regardless of diabetic status.