Climate instability causing the decline of a Neotropical savanna lizard population (Squamata: Tropiduridae)

Abstract

Abstract Populations that evolved in predictable seasonal environments might not have mechanisms to deal with unpredictable climate change. Assessing whether these populations can cope with recent increases in climate extremes and variability can better inform conservation efforts. We investigated the effects of climate deviations and fire on the population dynamics of the lizard Tropidurus torquatus in the Cerrado of Brazil. We decomposed six climate variables into seasonal and non-seasonal components and assessed which factors, along with long- and short-term effects of fire, better accounted for variation in the survival and recruitment of a T. torquatus population monitored for 12 years. Survival was not associated with climate seasonality, and instead minor fluctuations were related to temperature extremes. Recruitment benefited from long-term fire effects and had a strong seasonal component accounting for most of the variation in the population. Climate deviations caused severe changes in the number of recruits each year, with an overall negative effect on population growth. Population growth was more sensitive to recruitment than to survival, resulting in a sharp population decline over the study period. Tropidurus torquatus, and perhaps other species that evolved in similar conditions, can mitigate the demographic effects of fire but lack mechanisms to deal with climate deviation occurring over relatively short periods.