Current and future potential global distribution of the invading species Drosophila nasuta (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

Abstract

Abstract Species distribution modelling has been widely employed to indicate probable areas of invasion and to guide management strategies. Drosophila nasuta is native to Asia and has invaded Africa, islands of the Indian and Pacific Oceans and, more recently, the Americas. This species has been dispersing rapidly in the past decade, dominating the assemblage of drosophilids in numerous invaded territories, especially in protected areas. Here, we model the potential geographic distribution of D. nasuta for the present and two future scenarios. We also determine the environmental variables that most influence its distribution and investigate the risk of invasion in protected areas. Drosophila nasuta has the potential to expand its occurrence, especially on continents that have already been invaded. Variables related to greater rainfall were those that most influenced its distribution. The projections for the two future scenarios revealed a small increase in the distribution of the species compared to the projection for the present. The largest overlaps between the projected areas to be invaded by D. nasuta and territories in protected areas were found for Central and South America. The predictive maps delineated here can assist in the establishment of management plans directed at the conservation of biodiversity.