Avian taxonomy in turmoil: The 7-point rule is poorly reproducible and may overlook substantial cryptic diversity

Abstract

Abstract The ornithological world has 4 global checklists (as of early 2020). While 3 follow the results of peer-reviewed research at varying pace and conservatism, the HBW/BirdLife checklist, which is adopted by the global Red List authority, has implemented Tobias et al.’s (2010) 7-point scoring system to overhaul global ornithological treatment. Critically received in some academic quarters, this scoring system is lauded by other ornithologists for its simplicity and reproducibility, a claim that remains to be tested. We subjected 26 ornithologists to a set of 48 bird skins belonging to 20 controversial taxonomic complexes and observed a wide variance in scoring results, in most cases straddling anywhere from far below to above the species threshold of the 7-point rule and casting doubt on claims of high reproducibility. For a detailed assessment of genuine taxonomic discord, we compared the taxonomic coverage of the avifauna of the Indonesian Archipelago (comprising ~1,400 species) between the HBW/BirdLife checklist, other major authorities, and the peer-reviewed literature. We detected that controversial treatments supported by the 7-point rule but at odds with the peer-reviewed literature predominantly refer to lumps, not splits, which are the usual subject of modern taxonomic quarrels. Notably, the method tends to unite morphologically (and sometimes vocally) cryptic forms into single larger species because of its inability to accommodate molecular and massive bioacoustic datasets that would indicate otherwise. On the other hand, the 7-point rule has produced numerous novel proposals for splits that may or may not be corroborated by future peer-reviewed inquiry. We recommend the 7-point rule as one of the multiple unofficial exploratory tools to flag cases of potentially cryptic species requiring further inquiry, but we advise against its adoption by other taxonomic authorities and the ornithological community.