Spreading potential and spatial layout of circulating fluidized bed in China under the background of low-carbon development

Abstract

Abstract Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology plays a pivotal role as a clean thermal power generation technology in China. This paper delves into the prospective development potential and strategic deployment of CFB technology within the country. Initially, an integrated intelligent algorithm is devised to forecast future coal consumption. Leveraging the projected scope of existing CFB installations and the estimated volume of waste products from coal production, the development capacity of China’s CFB sector is quantitatively assessed. Subsequently, the regional deployment of CFB technology is examined. The projections indicate that coal production will likely range from 0.79 to 1.44 billion tons by 2030 and 1.23 to 2.30 billion tons by 2040. Furthermore, the ‘waste’ output from coal is anticipated to reach 700 to 900 million tons in 2020, escalating to 900 million to 1.2 billion tons by 2030. CFB technology exhibits a robust capacity for waste consumption, currently accounting for approximately 20% to 25% of the actual coal production. Spatially, North China presents the greatest development potential, while Northeast China shows the least, and South China experiences a declining demand. In the future spatial distribution, both coal-producing regions and environmental conservation considerations must be given due attention.