Predictors of long-term mortality among perioperative survivors of Fontan operation

Abstract

Abstract Aims The criteria for ‘good’ Fontan haemodynamics have been poorly defined in relation to long-term outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for mortality among haemodynamic parameters obtained early after the Fontan operation. Methods and results Clinical data of all perioperative survivors of the Fontan operation performed before 2011, from nine institutions, were collected through a retrospective chart review. In total, 1260 patients were included. The median age at the time of Fontan operation was 3.6 years. Post-operative cardiac catheterization was conducted in 1117 patients at a median period of 1.0 years after the operation. During the median follow-up period of 10.2 years, 107 patients died. The mortality rates at 10, 20, and 25 years after the operation were 5%, 12%, and 22%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, older age at the time of the operation {≥15 years, hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 3.2 (1.7–5.9)} and haemodynamic parameters obtained at post-operative catheterization, such as low ejection fraction [<30%, HR (95% CI): 7.5 (3.2–18)], low systemic oxygen saturation [<80%, HR (95% CI): 3.8 (1.6–9.1)], high central venous pressure [≥16 mmHg, HR (95% CI): 2.3 (1.3–3.9)], and low mean systemic arterial pressure [<60 mmHg, HR (95% CI): 3.0 (1.4–6.2)] were identified as independent predictors of mortality. The predictive model based on these parameters had a c-index of 0.75 at 10 years. Conclusions Haemodynamic parameters obtained at a median period of 1.0 years, post-operatively, can accurately identify patients with a high mortality risk, who may need intensive management to improve long-term outcomes. Key Question What defines ‘worse’ Fontan haemodynamics? Key Finding Older age at Fontan (≥15 years), low ejection fraction (<30%), low oxygen saturation (<80%), high central venous pressure (≥16 mmHg), and low mean systemic arterial pressure (<60 mmHg) were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Take Home Message Haemodynamic parameters obtained at a median period of 1.0 years, post-operatively, can accurately identify patients with a high mortality risk, who may need intensive management to improve long-term outcomes.