COVID-19 in South Korea: epidemiological and spatiotemporal patterns of the spread and the role of aggressive diagnostic tests in the early phase

Author:

Lee Whanhee1,Hwang Seung-Sik1,Song Insung1,Park Chaerin1,Kim Honghyok2ORCID,Song In-Kyung3,Choi Hayon Michelle2,Prifti Kristi1,Kwon Younggyu1,Kim Jeongheon1,Oh Seuk1,Yang Juyeon1,Cha Mirae1,Kim Yoonhee4,Bell Michelle L2,Kim Ho1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea

2. School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

3. Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

4. Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract

AbstractBackgroundSouth Korea experienced the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in the early period; thus data from this country could provide significant implications for global mitigation strategies. This study reports how COVID-19 has spread in South Korea and examines the effects of rapid widespread diagnostic testing on the spread of the disease in the early epidemic phase.MethodsWe collected daily data on the number of confirmed cases, tests and deaths due to COVID-19 from 20 January to 13 April 2020. We estimated the spread pattern with a logistic growth model, calculated the daily reproduction number (Rt) and examined the fatality pattern of COVID-19.ResultsFrom the start date of the epidemic in Korea (18 February 2020), the time to peak and plateau were 15.2 and 25 days, respectively. The initial Rt was 3.9 [95% credible interval (CI) 3.7 to 4.2] and declined to <1 after 2 weeks. The initial epidemic doubling time was 3.8 days (3.4 to 4.2 days). The aggressive testing in the early days of the epidemic was associated with reduction in transmission speed of COVID-19. In addition, as of 13 April, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Korea was 2.1%, suggesting a positive effect of the targeted treatment policy for severe patients and medical resources.ConclusionsOur findings provide important information for establishing and revising action plans based on testing strategies and severe patient care systems, needed to address the unprecedented pandemic.

Funder

Korea Ministry of Environment

Climate Change Correspondence Program

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

General Medicine,Epidemiology

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