1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Essex , Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK
2. Statistics, Modelling and Economics Department, UK Health Security Agency , London NW9 5EQ, UK
3. School of Life Sciences, University of Essex , Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK
4. Blizard Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London , London E1 2AT, UK