A comprehensive analysis of future solar energy potential variations using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble approach in Colombia

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is predicted to significantly impact solar energy generation, which is particularly concerning given that photovoltaic (PV) energy is critical to the global transition to clean energy in underdeveloped countries. This study analyses the PV potential variations in Colombia using a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble approach under two shared socio-economic pathway scenarios for the near (2025–50) and far (2051–2100) future. During the near-future period, the Pacific, Andean and Orinoquía regions are expected to experience a decrease in PV potential ranging from 10% to 23% for all shared socio-economic pathways. It will be particularly noticeable during the March/April/May and June/July/August seasons. On the other hand, CMIP6 estimations indicate a 1–4% increase in PV potential across the Amazon region during the June/July/August and September/October/November seasons. For the far future, it has been projected that the Pacific, Andean and Orinoquía regions may experience a significant decline in solar power generation due to increased cloud cover and reduced sunshine. The decrease in PV potential during the June/July/August season could range from 8% to 27% for all considered scenarios, with the Pacific region being the most affected. The Pacific region is projected to experience a decrease ranging from 10% to 35% for all seasons. It is worth noting that there are noticeable differences in PV potential across various regions, which can result in changes in cloud cover and atmospheric aerosols. Overall, the study provides valuable insights into the PV potential in Colombia and highlights the importance of considering regional variations and climate change scenarios in future energy planning.