Monitoring of three-phase variations in the mortality of COVID-19 pandemic using control charts: where does Pakistan stand?

Abstract

Abstract Background At the end of December 2019, the world in general and Wuhan, the industrial hub of China, in particular, experienced the COVID-19 pandemic. Massive increment of cases and deaths occurred in China and 209 countries in Europe, America, Australia, Asia and Pakistan. Pakistan was first hit by COVID-19 when a case was reported in Karachi on 26 February 2020. Several methods were presented to model the death rate due to the COVID-19 pandemic and to forecast the pinnacle of reported deaths. Still, these methods were not used in identifying the first day when Pakistan enters or exits the early exponential growth phase. Objective The present study intends to monitor variations in deaths and identify the growth phases such as pre-growth, growth, and post-growth phases in Pakistan due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods New approaches are needed that display the death patterns and signal an alarming situation so that corrective actions can be taken before the condition worsens. To meet this purpose, secondary data on daily reported deaths in Pakistan due to the COVID-19 pandemic have been considered. The $ c$ and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts have been used for monitoring variations. Results The $ c$-chart shows that Pakistan switches from the pre-growth to the growth phase on 31 March 2020. The EWMA chart demonstrates that Pakistan remains in the growth phase from 31 March 2020 to 17 August 2020, with some indications signaling a decrease in deaths. It is found that Pakistan moved to a post-growth phase for a brief period from 27 July 2020 to 28 July 2020. Pakistan switches to re-growth phase with an alarm on 31/7/2020, right after the short-term post-growth phase. The number of deaths starts decreasing in August in that Pakistan may approach the post-growth phase shortly. Conclusion This amalgamation of control charts illustrates a systematic implementation of the charts for government leaders and forefront medical teams to facilitate the rapid detection of daily reported deaths due to COVID-19. Besides government and public health officials, it is also the public’s responsibility to follow the enforced standard operating procedures as a temporary remedy of this pandemic in ensuring public safety while awaiting a suitable vaccine to be discovered.