Burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province from 1990 to 2019: with forecast for the next 11 years

Abstract

Abstract Ischemic stroke is featured with high incidence, mortality, and disability. The aim of this study is to use Global Burden of Disease database to describe and compare the burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province and to further predict the expected changes in the next 11 years using statistical modeling methods. Information on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality in China (mainland and Taiwan province) during 1990–2019 was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database to analyze the effects of region, gender, and age on the incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of ischemic stroke in males and females in mainland China and Taiwan province in the next 11 years. The period from 1990 to 2019 witnessed an overall upward trend in the number of incidence and deaths in mainland China and Taiwan province. In 2019, there were nearly 2.87 million ischemic incidence cases with stroke in mainland China, with more female patients than male in the age group of over 60 years. Among the nearly 1.03 million deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 85 years was higher than that of women, while in Taiwan province, the number of incidence was 28 771, with more female patients of all ages than male. Among the 6788 deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 80 years was higher than that of women. In 2019, the age group with the highest number of patients in the two regions was 65–69 years, while the highest number of deaths was found in people aged 85 years and above. As our autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted, the age-standardized incidence rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 163.23/100 000 persons in mainland China by 2030, which would continue to increase, while the age-standardized mortality rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 16.41/100 000 persons in Taiwan province by 2030, which showed a decreasing trend. Disease burden of ischemic stroke is still increasing in mainland China and Taiwan province, and health resources should be deployed to implement effective prevention and control strategies, taking into account region, gender, and age.