Dynamic risk stratification of worsening heart failure using a deep learning-enabled implanted ambulatory single-lead electrocardiogram

Abstract

Abstract Aims Implantable loop recorders (ILRs) provide continuous single-lead ambulatory electrocardiogram (aECG) monitoring. Whether these aECGs could be used to identify worsening heart failure (HF) is unknown. Methods and results We linked ILR aECG from Medtronic device database to the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) measurements in Optum® de-identified electronic health record dataset. We trained an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm [aECG-convolutional neural network (CNN)] on a dataset of 35 741 aECGs from 2247 patients to identify LVEF ≤ 40% and assessed its performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Ambulatory electrocardiogram-CNN was then used to identify patients with increasing risk of HF hospitalization in a real-world cohort of 909 patients with prior HF diagnosis. This dataset provided 12 467 follow-up monthly evaluations, with 201 HF hospitalizations. For every month, time-series features from these predictions were used to categorize patients into high- and low-risk groups and predict HF hospitalization in the next month. The risk of HF hospitalization in the next 30 days was significantly higher in the cohort that aECG-CNN identified as high risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28–2.79; P = 0.001] compared with low risk, even after adjusting patient demographics (HR 1.88; 95% CI 1.27–2.79 P = 0.002). Conclusion An AI algorithm trained to detect LVEF ≤40% using ILR aECGs can also readily identify patients at increased risk of HF hospitalizations by monitoring changes in the probability of HF over 30 days.