Augmenting Household Expenditure Forecasts with Online Employee-generated Company Reviews

Abstract

Abstract We assess the ability of online employee-generated content in predicting consumption expenditures. In so doing, we aggregate millions of employee expectations for the next six-month business outlook of their employer and build an employee sentiment index. We test whether forward-looking employee sentiment can contribute to baseline models when forecasting aggregate consumption in the United States and compare its performance to well-established, survey-based consumer sentiment indexes. We reveal that online employee opinions have incremental information that can be used to augment the accuracy of consumption forecasting models and inform economic policy decisions.