Abstract
A recent article by Barry Burden inPolitical Analysisalerts us to a steadily increasing gap during presidential election years between self-reported turnout in the NES (National Election Studies) and “official turnout” figures based on the voting-age population (VAP), and points to declining response rates as a culprit. Changing the baseline from the VAP to the VEP (voting-eligible population) significantly changes these conclusions, and point to panel effects as a culprit. The rise in the gap was not linear, but it does emerge rather suddenly in 1996. Gaps between NES self-reported turnout and VEP estimates are higher in presidential election years than in off-years, and self-reported turnout is higher among long-term panel participants than among cross-section respondents in multielection panels.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science
Reference10 articles.
1. Panel Effects in the American National Election Studies
2. For number of calls, v960029 recoded into four categories (1 or 2; 3 or 4; 5 through 8; 9 or more).
3. Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies
4. Overreporting Voting
5. Bernstein et al. (2001) also caution that overreports of turnout among nonvoters may bias estimates of the correlates of turnout.
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