Relative decline (and growth) and the changing electoral geography of England and Wales

Abstract

Abstract This chapter explores the relationship between changes in the sociodemographic characteristics of constituencies and changes in party support between 1979 and 2019. It asks how electoral support has changed for Labour and the Conservatives in places that have experienced relative improvements or decline in their socio-economic fabric. In areas that have been ‘improving’, we find a swing from the Conservatives to Labour. For Labour, the problem is that these constituencies are predominantly in major cities that have become increasingly attractive for younger graduates and professionals—areas in which they are already dominant. In contrast, using similar categories of ‘left behind’ places as the previous chapter, we show that areas that have become increasingly demographically left behind (relatively older, more working class, and less educated) have swung towards the Conservatives. Most notably, this is the case in post-industrial towns that have experienced the most prolonged socio-economic decline.