Conclusion

Abstract

Abstract This closing chapter summarizes our evidence and explanation of gradual changes—with notable accelerations and decelerations—in the geographical basis of electoral competition in England and Wales. We reflect on the drivers of changing electoral geography (long-term trends in social and economic structure and their geographic expression), putting Britain in comparative context. We provide an overview of the ways in which electoral outcomes have varied by region and place over time, and how the sociodemographic and economic predictors of voting at the constituency level have varied. We argue that there is substantial analytical and empirical value in identifying areas where parties defy the predictions of statistical models, and in using qualitative methods to better understand those cases. We suggest there is much uncertainty regarding how these developments might play out in the future, but argue that the importance of electoral geography should not be underestimated for the chances of parties taking office.