In search of Red and Blue heartlands

Author:

Furlong Jamie1,Jennings Will2

Affiliation:

1. University of Westminster , London, UK

2. University of Southampton , Southampton, UK

Abstract

Abstract This chapter examines the spatial structure of party support in England and Wales, revealing the continuing and changing areas of Labour and Conservative dominance between 1979 and 2019. Spatial analysis of vote shares reveals Labour’s heartlands have moved from coal-mining towns to larger cities, while Conservative ascendancy has remained across most of Southern and rural England. Extending the idea of a ‘heartland’ to include areas of electoral ‘over-performance’, we identify clusters of constituencies where compositional models under-predict support. For Labour, there is increasing over-performance in Merseyside, where sociodemographic characteristics cannot adequately explain the party’s electoral dominance. For the Conservatives, this is mirrored in Lincolnshire and parts of the West Midlands, with this tendency becoming stronger over time. The chapter concludes that space matters: while the composition of constituencies can accurately predict vote shares, there is a consistent spatial structure to the data, such that some areas do not follow expectations.

Publisher

Oxford University PressOxford

Reference270 articles.

1. Electoral fortunes of social democratic parties: do second dimension positions matter?;Abou-Chadi;Journal of European Public Policy,2020

2. Generational replacement and value change in eight West European societies;Abramson;British Journal of Political Science,1992

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