Identifying suitable habitat forIxodes scapularis(Acari: Ixodidae) infected withAnaplasma phagocytophilum(Rickettsiales: Anaplasmataceae),Babesia microti(Piroplasmida: Babesiidae), andBorrelia miyamotoi(Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) to guide surveillance efforts in the eastern United States

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding the distribution of infected ticks is informative for the estimation of risk for tickborne diseases. The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae), is the primary vector for 7 medically significant pathogens in United States. However, knowledge of the ranges of these pathogens in host-seeking ticks is incomplete, particularly for those occurring at low prevalence. To aid in prioritizing costly field sampling efforts, we estimated ranges of suitable habitat for Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Babesia microti, and Borrelia miyamotoi in the eastern United States based on existing county-level surveillance records. The resulting suitability maps were compared against those developed previously for Bo. burgdorferi s.s., which shares similar ecology but has been detected in a greater number of counties. The overall accuracy of the habitat suitability models was high (AUC ≥ 0.92) for all 4 pathogens. The most important predictors were related to temperature and moisture. The upper midwestern and northeastern states were predicted to be highly suitable for all 4 pathogens. Based on our models, we prioritized sampling in 431, 275, and 539 counties currently lacking pathogen records that our models classified as suitable for A. phagocytophilum, Ba. microti, and Bo. miyamotoi, respectively. As a second-tier priority, we identified 311 (A. phagocytophilum), 590 (Ba. microti), and 252 (Bo. miyamotoi) counties, based on high suitability scores for Bo. burgdorferi. Our models can be used to improve cost-effectiveness of field sampling efforts aimed at improving accuracy and completeness of pathogen distribution maps.