Measuring the Value of Softwood Log Exports: Evidence from Oregon

Abstract

Abstract Oregon softwood log exports experienced a resurgence during years after the Great Recession. Using an empirically grounded partial equilibrium model, the purpose of this study is to assess the net effects of log exports on total economic surplus by measuring the effects of a hypothetical absence of export markets from 2010:Q1 to 2015:Q4. Based on our modeling results, the net economic losses would have amounted to $248 million during the study period in total. Oregon mills would have gained $1.66 billion in total, whereas landowners would have lost $1.91 billion in total had there not been export markets. Furthermore, additional losses would have occurred from the forgone export premium. Our modeling results suggest that harvests would have been 1.97 billion board feet lower in the absence of export markets. However, Oregon mills would have used an additional 3.0 billion board feet. We also provide estimates for potential employment effects.