Projecting the Spatial Distribution of Possible Planted Forest Expansion in the United States

Author:

Wade Christopher M1ORCID,Baker Justin S1,Latta Gregory2,Ohrel Sara B3,Allpress Justine1

Affiliation:

1. RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC

2. Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID

3. US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

Abstract

AbstractAs the demand for forest products and carbon storage in standing timbers increases, intensive planting of forest resources is expected to increase. With the increased use of plantation practices, it is important to understand the influence that forest plot characteristics have on the likelihood of where these practices are occurring. Depending on the goals of a policy or program, increasing forest planting could be a desirable outcome or something to avoid. This study estimates a spatially explicit logistical regression function to assess the likelihood that forest plots will be planted based on physical, climate, and economic factors. The empirical results are used to project the potential spatial distribution of forest planting, at the intensive and extensive land-use margins, across illustrative future scenarios. Results from this analysis offer insight into the factors that have driven forest planting in the United States historically and the potential distribution of new forest planting in the coming decades under policy or market scenarios that incentivize improved forest productivity or certain ecosystem services provided by intensively managed systems (e.g., carbon sequestration).

Funder

US Environmental Protection Agency

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Plant Science,Forestry

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