Predictive value of the thrombotic risk criteria proposed in the 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of ACS: insights from a large PCI registry

Abstract

Abstract Aim To assess the value of the thrombotic risk criteria proposed in the 2023 guidelines of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) for the management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) to predict the ischaemic risk after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and results Consecutive patients with acute or chronic coronary syndrome undergoing PCI at a large tertiary-care center from 2014 to 2019 were included. Patients were stratified into low, moderate, or high thrombotic risk based on the ESC criteria. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) at 1 year, a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke. Secondary endpoints included major bleeding. Among 11 787 patients, 2641 (22.4%) were at low-risk, 5286 (44.8%) at moderate risk, and 3860 (32.7%) at high-risk. There was an incremental risk of MACE at 1 year in patients at moderate (hazard ratios (HR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.78–3.58) and high-risk (HR 3.39, 95% CI 2.39–4.80) as compared to those at low-risk, due to higher rates of all-cause death and MI. Major bleeding rates were increased in high-risk patients (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.25–2.02), but similar between the moderate and low-risk group. The Harrell's C-index for MACE was 0.60. Conclusion The thrombotic risk criteria of the 2023 ESC guidelines for ACS enable to stratify patients undergoing PCI in categories with an incremental 1 year risk of MACE; however, their overall predictive ability for MACE is modest. Future studies should confirm the value of these criteria to identify patients benefiting from an extended treatment with a second antithrombotic agent.