Prognostic assessment of lung adenocarcinoma patients with early-staging diseases: a nomogram based on coagulation-related factors

Abstract

Abstract OBJECTIVES Early-stage lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) has a great heterogeneity in prognosis that is difficult to evaluate effectively. Thus, we developed and validated an effective nomogram prognostic model based on the clinical and laboratory characteristics of stage I–IIA ADC. METHODS We included 1585 patients with pathologically diagnosed stage I–IIA ADC who underwent surgery at Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital. The nomogram was constructed based on the peripheral blood test and coagulation test indicators and evaluated using Calibration plots, concordance index, decision curve analysis and the X-tile software. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard regression model. The primary end point of this study was RFS. RESULTS Thrombin time and 4 clinical indicators for RFS were integrated into nomograms. A favourable agreement between the nomogram prediction and validation was observed in the calibration curves for RFS probabilities. The concordance index of the nomogram to predict RFS was 0.736 (95% confidence interval, 0.717–0.755). Moreover, significant differences were shown between the high-risk and low-risk groups in RFS and OS (P < 0.001) after effective cut-off values of risk points were found based on the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS We established and validated a prognostic nomogram including thrombin time to predict RFS and OS of stage I–IIA ADC patients. This nomogram provided an effective prediction ability for the prognosis of stage I–IIA ADC patients.