Failed hereditary succession in comparative perspective: The case of Senegal (2000–2024)

Abstract

Abstract Contrary to enduring theoretical expectations on neopatrimonialism, family successions are rare in sub-Saharan Africa. This article demonstrates that family successions are difficult to set up and might fail when rulers attempt to implement them. Building on the scholarship on political dynasties and family successions in broader comparative politics, I demonstrate that the study of failed attempts helps unveil the specific mechanisms of such failure. While scholarship documents how formal rules (such as term limits) constrain the ruler’s succession agenda, I contend that other types of constraints -party politics, opposition coalition, and public opinion-might also strongly impact it but have remained underexamined. The Senegal case study helps uncover these constraints. The article begins by emphasizing the theoretical importance and empirical challenges of studying non-cases of family successions and, more specifically, failed attempts. Then, the article examines the Senegalese failed hereditary succession between former President Abdoulaye Wade and his son Karim. Through a longitudinal single-country case study (2000–2024), this article employs process-tracing to uncover the three main interrelated mechanisms, which led to this failure: Popular resentment towards the succession attempt, a succession crisis due to the ruler’s not leaving power, and elite defection leading to party split. In mutually reinforcing each other, these dynamics converged to block the transfer of power from the ruler to his son. Therefore, this single case study of a failed attempt enhances our empirical and theoretical understanding of what drives variation in the success or failure of family succession. I argue that the role of actors (party elites and voters) in the succession process and how they engage with the rules of the game (mainly over party leadership selection and elections) impact the succession outcome.