Modelling the longer-term health and health inequality impacts of changes in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in England

Abstract

Abstract Background Alcohol consumption changed substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic for many people. This study quantified how these changes in drinking varied across the population and their potential longer-term impact on health and health inequalities. Methods We analyzed data from the Alcohol Toolkit Study to estimate how alcohol consumption changed during the pandemic (April 2020–November 2021) and how these changes varied with age, sex, drinking level and socioeconomic position. We combined these estimates with a range of alternative scenarios of future alcohol consumption and used the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to assess the long-term health and health inequality impacts of these changes. Results Alcohol consumption in 2020–21 increased in heavier drinkers but fell in moderate drinkers. If alcohol consumption returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, we estimate a total of 42 677 additional hospital admissions and 1830 deaths over 20 years because of these changes. If consumption remains at 2021 levels in the long-term these figures rise to 355 832 and 12 849, respectively. In all scenarios, the biggest increase in harm occurs in the most deprived 20% of the population. Conclusions Pandemic-era changes in alcohol consumption are likely to have a significant negative impact on public health and health inequalities, even under optimistic assumptions about future drinking.