Foreign Policy Preferences in Ukraine: Trade and Ethnolinguistic Identity

Abstract

ABSTRACT Individuals tend to favor important trade partners in their foreign policy preferences. Cultural affinity is also known to influence individuals’ foreign policy stances. This study examines how citizens prioritize international relations with trading partners in the face of ethnolinguistic divisions. Using survey data on foreign policy preferences paired with data on bilateral trade between Ukraine and its two largest trade partners (Russia and the European Union [EU]), I find that ethnolinguistic identity and relative trade exposure both affect foreign policy preferences and that these effects introduce cross-cutting cleavages. Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians in regions where the economic importance of trade with Russia is relatively higher are more likely to favor foreign policy oriented toward Russia than Ukrainian speakers elsewhere. Similarly, Russian speakers in areas with high levels of trade with the EU have more EU-oriented foreign policy preferences.