Novel deterministic epidemic model considering mass vaccination and lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 spread in Israel: a numerical study

Abstract

Abstract Why public health intervention by the Israeli government against coronavirus disease 2019 spread has been successful while the majority of other countries are still coping with it? To give a quantitative answer, a simple numerical epidemic model is prepared to simulate the entire trend of various infection-related variables considering the first and second vaccination campaigns against the alpha variant and simultaneous lockdown. This model is an extension of our previously published deterministic physical model, that is Apparent Time Lag Model, which aims at predicting an entire trend of variables in a single epidemic. The time series data of both vaccine dose ratio and lockdown period are employed in the model. Predictions have been compared with observed data in terms of daily new cases, isolated people, infections at large and effective reproductive number, and, further, the model is verified. Moreover, parameter survey calculations for several scenarios have clarified the synergy effects of vaccination and lockdown. In particular, the key element of Israel’s success has been suggested to lie in a high-dose vaccination rate that prevents the onset of a rebound in daily new cases on the rescission of the lockdown.