Open or closed? China’s dilemmas in a changing geopolitical and geoeconomic order

Abstract

Abstract China is currently being forced into a dilemma in policy terms, needing a more open economy to boost growth at a time when conditions are poor, but also seeking to close society in the name of security. A range of issues currently constrain the Chinese economy, including a weak property market, demographics that will lead to an increasingly ageing population, and increasingly large numbers of unsuccessful loans from the Belt and Road Initiative. Furthermore, rural dwellers are unlikely to be able to reap the benefits of training and technology available to urbanites. However, openness seems troubling to many policy-makers when China defines itself in terms of its own modern history, in which it was repeatedly invaded or occupied, creating a wary attitude toward the outside world. However, overall, China is likely to find opportunities to try out new economic opportunities in its own region, which may be successful as long as there is no confrontation over issues such as the status of Taiwan.