China, global economic disintegration, and the climate change challenge

Abstract

Abstract China has a large national interest in the success of the international effort to hold human-induced increases in temperature to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels—and therefore in global net emissions falling to net zero by 2050. China is essential to the success of the global effort—as a supplier of competitively priced equipment for the zero-emissions world economy and as the world’s largest current source of greenhouse gas emissions. Success is more likely for China and the world with international specialization in line with global comparative advantage in goods production for the zero-emissions economy. This requires open international trade, with China supplying equipment to and drawing zero emissions semi-processed goods from abroad. Contemporary tendencies in international political economy make that difficult but not impossible.