Development of a degree-day model to predict the growth of Anopheles stephensi (Diptera: Culicidae): implication for vector control management

Abstract

Abstract Anopheles stephensi is an efficient vector of malaria parasites in Iran. Despite its importance in malaria transmission, there is a scarcity of accurate predictive models of its rates of development at different temperatures. A laboratory colony of An. stephensi, collected from Bandar Abbas County, southern Iran, was established, and all its developmental stages were maintained in temperature-controlled incubators so that the water temperature set at 5, 8, 10, 12.5, 14, 28, 38, 39.5, 42, and 45(±0.2) °C for different treatments until subsequent adult emergence. The Lower and Upper Developmental Temperatures (LDT and UDT) and the growth degree-day (GDD) were calculated for each development stage. A 12-mo population dynamics survey of the larvae and adults of An. stephensi was performed in 3 malaria-endemic villages (Geno, Hormoodar, and Sarkhoon) of Bandar Abbas County, and the obtained data were matched with the constructed GDD model. Based on the field meteorological and dynamics data, the model was verified in the field and used to determine the appropriate date to start spraying. The LDT was determined to be 8.19, 9.74, 8.42, 5.6, 13.57, and 10.03 °C for egg hatching, first, second, and third ecdysis, pupation, and eclosion events, respectively. The UDT was 38 °C for all developmental stages. The thermal requirement for the development of all immature stages of An stephensi was determined to be 187.7 (±56.3) GDD above the LDT. Therefore, the appropriate date to start residual spraying is when the region’s GDD reaches 187.7 (±56.3). Given the climatic conditions in Bandar Abbas County, it is expected that the first activity peak of adult An. stephensi would be in March. Field observations showed that An. stephensi activity starts in February and peaks in March. The GDD model can provide a good estimate for peak An. stephensi activity and indicate the optimal deployment time of residual spraying operations against the multiplication and development of malaria parasites inside the vector.