Seeking edge-on galaxies with substantial extraplanar dust using a radiative transfer model: determination of the model parameter uncertainties for EON_10.477_41.954 (FGC 79)

Abstract

ABSTRACT We have revisited the target EON_10.477_41.954 in order to determine more accurately the uncertainties in the model parameters that are important for target classification (i.e. galaxies with or without substantial extraplanar dust). We performed a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis for the 15 parameters of the three-dimensional radiative-transfer galaxy model we used previously for target classification. To investigate the convergence of the MCMC sampling – which is usually neglected in the literature but should not be – we monitored the integrated autocorrelation time (τint), and we achieved effective sample sizes >5650 for all the model parameters. The confidence intervals are unstable at the beginning of the iterations where the values of τint are increasing, but they become stable in later iterations where those values are almost constant. The final confidence intervals are ∼5–100 times larger than the nominal uncertainties used in our previous study (the standard deviation of three best-fitting results). Thus, those nominal uncertainties are not good proxies for the model-parameter uncertainties. Although the position of EON_10.477_41.954 in the target-classification plot (the scale height to diameter ratio of dust versus that of light source) decreases by about 20–30 per cent when compared to our previous study, its membership in the ‘high-group’ – i.e. among galaxies with substantial extraplanar dust – nevertheless remains unchanged.