Do the solar flares originating from an individual active region follow a random process or a memory-dependent correlation?

Abstract

ABSTRACT We investigate the waiting time statistics of solar flares both in a flare-productive active region (AR 12673) of the solar cycle 24 and in a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulated AR. The statistical models of a discrete random process and a continuous memory-dependent process are applied to interpret the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar flares. Our results indicate that the occurrence of a solar flare in an individual AR maintains a certain amount of memory, and probably arises from MHD turbulence rather than from intermittent avalanches in a self-organized criticality system. It differs from the occurrence of ‘super flares’ when treating the star/Sun as a single non-linear system.