A non-linear approach to predicting the amplitude and timing of the sunspot area in cycle 25

Abstract

ABSTRACT The sunspot cycle waxes and wanes over a period of about 11 years and modulates ‘space weather’. Therefore, predicting the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle is an important goal for both solar physics and space weather. It is clear nowadays that cyclic variations of the Sun are non-linear processes, and thus the above-mentioned goal is difficult to reach with accuracy, albeit several methods currently exist to forecast both long-term and short-term variations. Solar cycle 25 has recently started and knowing the strength and timing of maximum of this cycle in advance is essential. In this study, a non-linear prediction algorithm, non-linear empirical dynamical modelling (EDM), is used to forecast the maximum amplitude and timing of the sunspot area of this cycle. This technique was tested on the last solar cycle 24 (Sarp et al. 2018) and the results obtained are in good agreement with observed values. Our study unveils that the maximum amplitude of the sunspot area of the whole solar disc will be 1606.49 ± 412.78 millionths of the solar hemispheric area (m.s.h.) and is expected to occur around 2025 March. We found that the predicted maximum sunspot areas in the Northern and Southern hemispheres are 731.39 ± 192.7 and 764.89 ± 195.39 m.s.h., respectively, with probable times of maxima around 2023 September and 2024 August, respectively. These results indicate that the strength of the sunspot area in solar cycle 25 will be weaker than or comparable with that in solar cycle 24. Such results are discussed and compared with other recent forecasts.