Do unequal-mass binary black hole systems have larger χeff? Probing correlations with copulas in gravitational-wave astronomy

Abstract

ABSTRACT The formation history of binary black hole systems is imprinted on the distribution of their masses, spins, and eccentricity. While much has been learned studying these parameters in turn, recent studies have explored the joint distribution of binary black hole parameters in two or more dimensions. Most notably, it has recently been argued that binary black hole mass ratio and effective inspiral spin χeff are anticorrelated. We point out a previously overlooked subtlety in such 2D population studies: in order to conduct a controlled test for correlation, one ought to fix the two marginal distributions – lest the purported correlation be driven by improved fit in just one dimension. We address this subtlety using a tool from applied statistics: the copula density function. We use the previous work correlating mass ratio and χeff as a case study to demonstrate the power of copulas in gravitational-wave astronomy while scrutinizing their astrophysical inferences. Our findings, however, affirm their conclusions that binary black holes with unequal component masses exhibit larger χeff (98.7 per cent credibility). We conclude by discussing potential astrophysical implications of these findings as well as prospects for future studies using copulas.