Incidence of clinical atrial fibrillation and related complications using a screening algorithm at a nationwide level

Abstract

Abstract Aims In a recent position paper, the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) proposed an algorithm for the screening and management of arrhythmias using digital devices. In patients with prior stroke, a systematic screening approach for atrial fibrillation (AF) should always be implemented, preferably immediately after the event. Patients with increasing age and with specific cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular comorbidities are also deemed to be at higher risk. From a large nationwide database, the aim was to analyse AF incidence rates derived from this new EHRA algorithm. Methods and results Using the French administrative hospital discharge database, all patients hospitalized in 2012 without a history of AF, and with at least a 5-year follow-up (FU) (or if they died earlier), were included. The yearly incidence of AF was calculated in each subgroup defined by the algorithm proposed by EHRA based on a history of previous stroke, increasing age, and eight comorbidities identified via International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes. Out of the 4526 104 patients included (mean age 58.9 ± 18.9 years, 64.5% women), 1% had a history of stroke. Among those with no history of stroke, 18% were aged 65–74 years and 21% were ≥75 years. During FU, 327 012 patients had an incidence of AF (yearly incidence 1.86% in the overall population). Implementation of the EHRA algorithm divided the population into six risk groups: patients with a history of stroke (group 1); patients > 75 years (group 2); patients aged 65–74 years with or without comorbidity (groups 3a and 3b); and patients < 65 years with or without comorbidity (groups 4a and 4b). The yearly incidences of AF were 4.58% per year (group 2), 6.21% per year (group 2), 3.50% per year (group 3a), 2.01% per year (group 3b), 1.23% per year (group 4a), and 0.35% per year (group 4b). In patients aged < 65 years, the annual incidence of AF increased progressively according to the number of comorbidities from 0.35% (no comorbidities) to 9.08% (eight comorbidities). For those aged 65–75 years, the same trend was observed, i.e. increasing from 2.01% (no comorbidities) to 11.47% (eight comorbidities). Conclusion These findings at a nationwide scale confirm the relevance of the subgroups in the EHRA algorithm for identifying a higher risk of AF incidence, showing that older patients (>75 years, regardless of comorbidities) have a higher incidence of AF than those with prior ischaemic stroke. Further studies are needed to evaluate the usefulness of algorithm-based risk stratification strategies for AF screening and the impact of screening on major cardiovascular event rates.