The Conditional Association Between Populism, Ideological Extremity, and Affective Polarization

Abstract

Abstract In recent years there has been an increasing interest in whether populism is related to opinion extremity. Yet, research on the topic offers little direct evidence on whether and under which conditions populist ideas at the individual level are related to policy extremity and inter-party dislike. This article aims to fill this gap by focusing on the reasons populist individuals hold more or less extreme opinions. Using data from the 2016 American National Electoral Study, I find that populist attitudes are a strong correlate of both ideological extremity and affective polarization, yet this association is conditional on respondent’s party affiliation. Populism is related to higher levels of ideological extremity among Democrats and stronger negative leader evaluations among Republicans. This finding indicates that the relationship between populism and citizens’ political judgements varies depending on the ability of populist leaders to make certain dimensions of the competition salient (i.e., ideological or affective) and exploit pre-existing ideological and partisan rivalries (i.e., party identity).