A Bargaining Theory of Criminal War

Abstract

Abstract Criminal war is a leading cause of death around the world. We argue for the inclusion of this topic in security studies and adapt a bargaining framework to shed light on why criminal groups fight or agree to peace. We propose that shocks to relative coercive capacity cause criminal war. This escalation in violent conflict proves more likely when criminal groups face greater difficulty negotiating: when they are more factionalized, less rooted in their territory, and in strategic rivalry with a greater number of rivals. Our empirical strategy leverages a critical, policy-relevant shock to access to weapons following an arms control repeal, and novel city block-level, monthly data on criminal organization traits, turf, and violence over ten years to understand how changes in coercive inputs upset the existing balance of power among criminal groups and shaped patterns of war and truce.