Impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of ticks of public health significance in Colombia: Amblyomma ovale (Ixodida: Ixodidae), the Amblyomma maculatum (Ixodida: Ixodidae) complex and the Amblyomma cajennense (Ixodida: Ixodidae) complex

Abstract

Abstract Ticks of the Amblyomma maculatum (Ixodida Ixodidae) complex, the Amblyomma cajennense (Ixodida Ixodidae) complex and Amblyomma ovale (Ixodida Ixodidae) are known to transmit various Rickettsia species in Colombia, but their exact distribution is unknown. We built several models based on current climate and projected future climate changes using a maximum entropy approach. A total of 314 records of the A. cajennense complex (65.9%; n = 207), A. ovale (22.9%; n = 72), and the A. maculatum complex (11.1%; n = 35) were obtained. Amblyomma ovale has a current distribution in the Pacific, Caribbean and Andean regions and could be potentially found in the Amazon. Amblyomma maculatum has a current distribution in the Andean and could potentially be found in the Caribbean and Orinoco regions. Amblyomma mixtum can be found near the Caribbean Sea and in the Pacific region, and A. patinoi is likely to be found in the Andean region and the Caribbean. In 2070, it will be possible to find an expansion of A. ovale and A. maculatum and a decrease of A. mixtum and A. patinoi. The variables that best predict the distribution of these species are isothermality (small fluctuations in temperature) and annual precipitation. Amblyomma cajennense s.l and A. ovale, A. cajennese s.l and A. patinoi, as well as A. maculatum and A. patinoi, have an important environmental sympatry. Epidemiological and acarological surveillance is crucial to investigate rickettsiosis caused by R. parkeri in A. ovale regions, by R. rickettsii in A. patinoi and A. mixtum areas, and by R. parkeri s.s in A. maculatum regions.