Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks

Abstract

Abstract In the last few decades, a broad strand of literature in finance has implemented artificial neural networks as a forecasting method. The major advantage of this approach is the possibility to approximate any linear and nonlinear behaviors without knowing the structure of the data generating process. This makes it suitable for forecasting time series which exhibit long-memory and nonlinear dependencies, like conditional volatility. In this article, the predictive performance of feed-forward and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) was compared, particularly focusing on the recently developed long short-term memory (LSTM) network and nonlinear autoregressive model process with eXogenous input (NARX) network, with traditional econometric approaches. The results show that RNNs are able to outperform all the traditional econometric methods. Additionally, capturing long-range dependence through LSTM and NARX models seems to improve the forecasting accuracy also in a highly volatile period.