Validating Species Distribution Models With Standardized Surveys for Ixodid Ticks in Mainland Florida

Abstract

Abstract Tick-borne pathogens are of growing concern. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed guidelines standardizing surveys of tick vectors to better monitor the changes in their occurrences. Unbiased surveillance data, from standardized surveys, are presumed critical to generate valid species distribution models (SDMs). We tested previously generated SDMs from standardized protocols for three medically important ticks [Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus, Ixodida, Ixodidae), Ixodes scapularis (Say, Ixodida, Ixodidae), and Dermacentor variabilis (Say, Ixodida, Ixodidae)]. These previous models ruled out a quarter to half of the state as having these species, with consensus occurrence in about a quarter of the state. New surveys performed throughout 2019 on 250 transects at 43 sites indicated the rule-out functions were 100% accurate for I. scapularis and D. variabilis and 91.9% for A. americanum. As SDM concordance increased, the proportion of transects yielding ticks increased. Independent surveys of SDMs provide external validation—an aspect missing from many SDM studies.