A Review of Conceptual Approaches and Empirical Evidence on Probability and Nonprobability Sample Survey Research

Author:

Cornesse Carina1,Blom Annelies G2,Dutwin David3,Krosnick Jon A4,De Leeuw Edith D5,Legleye Stéphane6,Pasek Josh7,Pennay Darren8,Phillips Benjamin9,Sakshaug Joseph W10,Struminskaya Bella11,Wenz Alexander12

Affiliation:

1. postdoctoral researcher; she is with the Collaborative Research Center SFB 884 “Political Economy of Reforns” at the University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany

2. Professor for Data Science at the Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, and Principal Investigator of the German Internet Panel (GIP) at the Collaborative Research Center (SFB 884) “Political Economy of Reforms” at the University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany

3. Senior Vice President; he is with NORC at the University of Chicago, 55 East Monroe Street, 30th Floor, Chicago, IL 60603, USA

4. Frederic O. Glover Professor in Humanities and Social Sciences, Professor of Communication, and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, 432 McClatchy Hall, 450 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

5. Professor Emerita of Survey Methodology at the Department of Methodology and Statistics at Utrecht University, Sjoerd Groenmangebouw, Padualaan 14, 3584 CH Utrecht, Netherlands

6. Head of the Team “Drug Use in the General Population” at CESP, Inserm, faculté de médecine UVSQ, faculté de médecine, Université Paris-Saclay, Université Paris-Sud and Head of the “Household Living Conditions” Unit at Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques, 88, avenue Verdier, CS 70058, 92541 Montrouge cedex, France

7. Associate Professor, Department of Communication and Media and Faculty Associate, Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan, 105 S. State Street, 5413 North Quad, Ann Arbor MI 48109

8. Founder, Board Member, and Executive Director Research, Methods & Strategy at the Social Research Centre, Campus visitor at Australian National University Centre for Social Research, Level 9, 277 William St, Melbourne Victoria Australia 3000 and Methods and Adjunct Professor with the Institute for Social Science Research (ISSR), University of Queensland

9. Senior Research Director, Survey Methodology at the Social Research Centre, Level 9, 277 William St, Melbourne Victoria Australia 3000 and Campus Visitor at the Centre for Social Research & Methods, Australian National University

10. Distinguished Researcher, Head of the Data Collection and Data Integration Unit, and Acting Head of the Statistical Methods Research Department at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), 104 Regensburgerstr. 90478 Nuremberg, Germany, University Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, 80539 Munich, Germany, and Honorary Full Profe

11. assistant professor with the Department of Methodology and Statistics at the University of Utrecht, Sjoerd Groenmangebouw Padualaan 14, 3584 CH Utrecht, Netherlands

12. postdoctoral researcher with the Collaborative Research Center SFB 884 “Political Economy of Reforms” at the University of Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany and the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex

Abstract

Abstract There is an ongoing debate in the survey research literature about whether and when probability and nonprobability sample surveys produce accurate estimates of a larger population. Statistical theory provides a justification for confidence in probability sampling as a function of the survey design, whereas inferences based on nonprobability sampling are entirely dependent on models for validity. This article reviews the current debate about probability and nonprobability sample surveys. We describe the conditions under which nonprobability sample surveys may provide accurate results in theory and discuss empirical evidence on which types of samples produce the highest accuracy in practice. From these theoretical and empirical considerations, we derive best-practice recommendations and outline paths for future research.

Funder

German Research Foundation

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Social Sciences (miscellaneous),Statistics and Probability

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